Wisdom of the Crowd

What you guys thought…

Some of you got very close. Someone was even just a few days away from being exactly right. Below is some summary statistics and some graphs of the guesses.

Let’s change the x-axis. Let’s say we wanted to see if you guessed close based on working ages (20 - 65 years old).

Relationship between Your Guess and Your Age

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = age ~ own_age, data = .)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -5.4249 -1.0379  0.0625  1.4684  3.4772 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 32.40196    3.57687   9.059 5.59e-07 ***
## own_age     -0.01255    0.12002  -0.105    0.918    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 2.221 on 13 degrees of freedom
##   (5 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.0008409,  Adjusted R-squared:  -0.07602 
## F-statistic: 0.01094 on 1 and 13 DF,  p-value: 0.9183

## Warning: Removed 5 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).

## Warning: Removed 5 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

Relationship between How Wrong Your Guess Was and Your Age

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = wrongness ~ own_age, data = .)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.0830 -0.8874  0.2201  0.4427  2.7327 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept) -2.29244    2.15939  -1.062   0.3077  
## own_age      0.16289    0.07246   2.248   0.0426 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1.341 on 13 degrees of freedom
##   (5 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2799, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2246 
## F-statistic: 5.054 on 1 and 13 DF,  p-value: 0.04255

## Warning: Removed 5 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).

## Warning: Removed 5 rows containing missing values (geom_point).